Peak Oil is when the maximum petroleum production rate is reached. This is the concern of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, whose 2 day conference I attended in Cork last month.
Dr. James R. Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary, gave the keynote on day one. He mentioned how difficult a task it will be to provide clean, efficient, unlimited energy to the planet as evidenced by the new Democrat majority in Congress which promised an environment policy and an energy plan to give us independence from foreign oil by Independence Day this year. Didn't happen! Obviously our politicians are limited to oratory skills in filibustering and pettifoggery; but, have little or no skills in the sciences. I had the privilege to meet Dr. Schlesinger during the coffee break. I asked him about ANWR and new oil refineries to which he responded that drilling in Alaska will eventually happen and that there is no point in building new refineries while the oil supply remains constant or diminishes.
In the afternoon, Pierre-Rene Bauquis, of the French Petroleum Institute, gave us the impression that we should soon have to accept the inevitability of a 60%25 nuclear, 30%25 hydrocarbon symbiotic relationship till we can perhaps harness the sun's energy for a more reliable and sustainable source of energy. That seemed a good idea and left us all feeling as though there was hope till we heard from Michael Dittmar, ETH Zurich, the next day.
According to Herr Dittmar, uranium joins hydrocarbons in that it too is a limited resource. At today's use, we only have about 49 years before uranium is depleted. Present day fission reactors will eventually run out of fuel. What about fusion reactors? The prognosis is that they will always be 50 years away.
Peak Oil hit the United States in the 70's. America used to be one of the 3 largest oil producing nations. Now countries like Saudi Arabia and Mexico have hit their peak and are no longer reliable sources of oil and will end up like the U.S.. The world's oil producers are also becoming the greatest consumers of their own oil creating more scarcity. Gas is the cleanest form of energy but Iran and Russia are the world's biggest gas producers levying tremendous insecurity in that area. As I wrote, our politicians aren't usually well informed people, and you will hear them lauding biofuels which are not that viable a solution to the problem when you consider replacing 15%25 of our gasoline (petrol) with ethanol would require 130%25 of the entire U.S. corn crop. The amount of heat you get from burning a litre of ethanol is a third less than that from a litre of petrol. What is more, it absorbs water from the atmosphere. Unless it is mixed with some other fuel, such as petrol, the result is corrosion that can wreck an engine's seals in a couple of years.
China has surpassed the United States as the largest contributor of CO2 emissions. China builds 2 coal-fired power plants every week. The Kyoto Protocol let China and India off the hook, as well as commercial
airlines which inject one third of the world's carbon emissions directly into the atmosphere. Kyoto sounded good (again, to politicians), but few European countries have met their emission requirements and even if they had, the Kyoto Protocol wouldn't have made anything but the most marginal of contributions.
As an American, I can see some hope in our massive coal deposits as long as we develop better CCS (Carbon Capture %26 Storage) capabilities soon. If I were a Canadian, a country of just over 33 million people, I would be ecstatic about the fact Canada has oil, tar sands, gas and uranium. Unlike Venezuela, Canada is open to all as long as it gets its royalty checks on time. But, this isn't addressing the next century which brings me to the refreshingly entertaining and perspicacious Nate Hagens, of the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont.
Mr Hagens' approach was not so much about how much fuel we have left; but, how to extend what we use now. He displayed a chart of the amount of income people made over the last 50 years and what people wanted to make. It consistently exhibited the same ratio as incomes rose, expectations rose commensurately always just a bit higher - humans are never satisfied. As long as we have had cheap and plentiful energy, we continued to want to use it more and more because that is the way we were wired through 250,000 plus generations as hominids - we are competitive and greedy. Perhaps it's a good thing we pay dearly for our energy now. What would we do if it suddenly came to an abrupt end? One reassuring fact is that being rich and having lots of "things" doesn't equate with happiness, e.g. the people of Venezuela and Mexico are far happier than people in the United States.
We have to change the public's view on conservation - make it "sexy". Our children must be educated; so, maybe they can educate us. Can you imagine thinking "Gee, my neighbour has really reduced his energy consumption - I have to do something to beat him" rather than just getting a bigger SUV than the Johnson's next door?
I was glad to hear Eddie O'Connor, CEO of Airtricity, speak on wind farms. Airtricity develops and operates wind farms in Ireland, Scotland, England, Wales, Germany, Portugal, Canada, and the United States. When Mr. O'Connor mentioned how well he got on with President Bush who is a big proponent of wind farms I thought one of the panel members, former California mayor Debbie Cook, was going to regurgitate the wonderful Colcannon we had for lunch. Debbie, a blonde, suggested we stop eating red meat in order to cut greenhouse gases.
It was also fascinating having a glimpse of a range of electric automobiles - present and future. By 2009, there will be electric cars capable of speeds from 0-100 kph in a little over 4 seconds, with a range of 250 miles, and just a 10 minute recharge waiting period (some may not even require recharging; just swapping). And here's something I bet you didn't expect; they may only cost $15,000 out the door.
I hope to attend an ASPO convention every year no matter where it's held. The subject is daunting, engrossing, and important.